Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 189.533312 223.871470 264.419211 316.315041 381.668376 462.181947 5.703630e+02
2025-10-26 147.556018 188.852275 242.970868 320.747540 432.513399 592.012084 8.459925e+02
2025-11-02 121.972618 165.178924 226.199222 321.835815 474.211958 719.638668 1.173200e+03
2025-11-09 102.862868 145.254679 208.592415 314.768047 498.569134 826.213228 1.517048e+03
2025-11-16 89.009252 129.994308 194.101969 307.769073 519.062767 931.289168 1.914467e+03
2025-11-23 78.272950 117.546424 181.378733 300.112294 535.025658 1032.299522 2.365119e+03
2025-11-30 74.581427 115.618123 185.327010 322.499211 615.076146 1300.749110 3.442788e+03
2025-12-07 68.667774 109.046295 179.995732 325.881867 656.344161 1498.943654 4.508996e+03
2025-12-14 64.296425 104.488095 177.453669 334.105327 711.067523 1760.067355 6.099438e+03
2025-12-21 59.514039 98.564623 171.398637 333.539503 744.459580 1979.807839 7.838671e+03
2025-12-28 58.007567 98.405350 176.399265 358.402414 852.542498 2504.540531 1.207600e+04
2026-01-04 56.052272 97.129102 178.913507 378.094697 954.624394 3090.340140 1.833712e+04
2026-01-11 53.617354 94.796550 179.229286 393.562220 1054.663893 3777.155029 2.833244e+04
2026-01-18 50.810123 91.410306 176.816052 401.720528 1136.512577 4479.056451 4.279520e+04
2026-01-25 47.862323 87.405605 172.453436 403.739697 1199.309130 5168.024859 6.315477e+04
2026-02-01 44.502378 82.196028 164.645902 394.488784 1217.603761 5641.010709 8.557243e+04
2026-02-08 41.499603 77.454222 157.338062 385.236185 1233.141937 6132.016352 1.168115e+05
2026-02-15 38.756132 73.014389 150.207488 375.102849 1241.764031 6603.556218 1.588221e+05
2026-02-22 38.404576 73.732800 155.643255 404.808726 1438.428806 8862.548315 3.818213e+05
2026-03-01 36.769642 71.440478 153.297290 409.311204 1524.103316 10398.400169 7.221961e+05
2026-03-08 35.555820 69.983043 152.890751 420.270561 1649.885060 12692.434969 1.721757e+06
2026-03-15 33.923682 67.418588 149.286746 419.515871 1715.608308 14535.524182 3.798182e+06
2026-03-22 33.755910 68.245060 154.805852 452.769337 1997.342002 20431.208247 3.242717e+07